Battle Creek, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
327 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers are possible Today along and north of I-96.

- A cold front will bring a a chance for showers and a few
  thunderstorms late in the day Friday.

- Seasonably cool and dry this weekend with mid-summerlike
  conditions arriving early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

The end of the broad blocking flow regime encompassing nearly all of
North America is now in view. The ongoing intense Gulf of Alaska
cyclone has induced sharp downstream ridge development west of the
Rockies. In turn the westerlies, that have been bottled up near the
Arctic circle, are getting a geopotential gradient boost -
initiating jet amplification and shortwave perturbation production.
The lead trough will amplify over the Hudson Bay region today and
surge south into the weak geopotential field across the Great Lakes
region on Friday. As this is occuring the tail end of the old
resident closed low will re-invigorate some through contributions
from convective upscale growth. The plunging wave will interact with
the last remnant of the current system and carve out a full latitude
trough east of the Mississippi River by Saturday. Meanwhile, the
longwave ridge will continue to build and begin a march east as the
overall wavelength contracts. This deep ridge will strongly
influence the weather the first half of next week - bringing a
legitimate taste of summer. As for tendencies to this new flow
pattern, the overall trend within the guidance suite is to shorten
the planetary wave wavelength - making the pattern slightly more
progressive.

As for the tangible weather, expansive low clouds with light fog and
patchy drizzle occupy much of the southern Lower Peninsula early
this Thursday. The broad area of low pressure responsible for the
unsettled conditions will linger through the day - maintaining
mainly cloudy conditions with light winds. The pocket of cooler air
aloft will remain overhead today (850-mb temps around +7*C), in
combination with the existing weak moisture convergence along the
trough axis draped across Central Michigan, coupled with a modicum
of diurnal recovery to the boundary layer will support some
instability production (up to 200-J/kg of MLCAPE) this afternoon.
Any instability within the moist profiles will be more than adequate
to support isolated to scattered light shower development - mainly
along and north of I-96.

The previously mentioned shortwave driving south into the region on
Friday will interact with a convectively charged wave traversing the
Ohio Valley. This merger process will help send a cold front
aggressively from north to south through the region late in the day.
In advance of the boundary, modest instability will build - possibly
exceeding 1-kJ/kg - with very little inhibition immediately
preceding the front. The combination of wave merger dynamics,
supportive thermodynamics, and a coherent boundary driver via the
cold front will result in a few clusters of showers and storms.
Prospects for severe weather will be low, as there is a lack of deep-
layer shear to support greater storm-scale organization.

Cool northeast flow associated with the incoming high pressure
system on Saturday - with some help from a cold Lake Huron - will
control the weather setup this weekend. The net result will be
pleasant conditions with a cool starts in the 40s and daytime highs
around 70.

On the heals of the surface high, deep southwest flow will usher in
a much warmer airmass starting Monday. The heat will continue to
build as the upper ridge advances overhead Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs will easily climb into the mid-80s. A small cluster of the
extended guidance suite (< 20%) flattens the long-wave ridge with a
leading shortwave trough and is suggesting Wednesday may be the
earliest opportunity for showers and storms. However, Thursday is
still the favored timing amongst the rest of ensemble membership for
the arrival of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

The band of showers has lifted into northern MI leading ending most
of the rain chances across the southern part of the state. Low
stratus is now filling in across southern MI and should continue to
do so through the early morning hours as the trough axis passes
over. Obs are still showing alot of variability across the area
bouncing from IFR to VFR so will go with a tempo group for now until
it starts to fill in more consistently. Conditions improve through
the day tomorrow as daytime mixing helps raise ceilings. Still
watching for potential afternoon showers during peak heating with
the available low level moisture present.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Weak low pressure slowly migrates across Lake Huron this morning,
maintaining shower chances and northwest flow through the day.
Meanwhile low pressure drops toward New England from Hudson Bay with
the cyclonic influence leading to modest backing of winds to the
west-southwest across all waterways by tonight. Southward
progression of the low drags a cold front through the Great Lakes
Friday afternoon-evening, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms
while shifting flow back to the northwest. Drier conditions to then
develop this weekend as high pressure attempts to build into the
region.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mann
AVIATION...DRK
MARINE...MV